Weekly Report – Global Liquidity & Strategic Transactions, August 24 – 31, 2025

Executive Summary 

• U.S. indices closed the week barely negative after setting all-time highs in midweek: S&P 500 -0.1%, Nasdaq -0.2%, Dow -0.2%. The month, however, was positive (S&P 500 +1.9%).  

• July PCE inflation in the US remained at 2.6% YoY; Core rose to 2.9% YoY (0.3% MoM), in line with expectations. The market reinforces bets on a Fed cut in September.  

• China offered mixed signals: the official manufacturing PMI (NBS) came in at 49.4 (fifth consecutive contraction), while the S&P Global private PMI rebounded to 50.5.  

• Gold near recent all-time highs; stable oil within range ahead of OPEC+ (Sept. 7). DXY dollar closed August down ~2% on expectations of cuts.  

Macro and monetary policy 

• US: Personal Income and Spending report confirmed headline PCE inflation of 2.6% YoY in July; the core advanced 2.9% YoY (0.3% MoM). “Warm but in line” readings left the market hanging on this week’s jobs (ISM, JOLTS, ADP, Sept. 5 payrolls) to gauge the Fed’s cut at the Sep. 17 meeting.  

• Europe: Germany surprised to the upside (2.1% YoY in August); ECB surveys maintain inflation expectations above 2% at 1–3 years, while EMU composite activity continued to expand in August (PMI 51.1).  

• China: Divergence between NBS (49.4) and private PMI (50.5) suggests domestic weakness but resilience of the export sector. The reading comes amid trade uncertainty and chain reconfiguration.  

Fixed income and curves 

• USTs: Week of slight volatility. Towards the close, 10Y at around 4.2–4.3% and 2Y close to 3.6%; Futures are pricing in ~80–85% probability of a 25 bps cut in September and ~50–60 bps by the end of the year. Flattening persisted in short stretches with some pressure on the long end (“intermittent bear steepening”).  

• Europe: Germany/France long legs extended yields in August due to supply and tax doubts; the OAT-Bund premium widened in the previous week.  

Equity 

• US: Mega-Tech profit-taking (Nvidia, Dell trail) after new highs; energy and banks held up better. Slightly negative weekly balance, but still upward monthly trend.  

• Asia/China: Alibaba +19% boosted Hong Kong; Asia ex-JP moderated after profit-taking in Japanese technology.  

• Europe: FTSE 100 bounced with gold-supported mining/defense and sector news.  

FX & Commodities 

• Dollar: DXY closed the month with a fall of close to 2% on expectations of a cut; the euro and AUD advanced.  

• Gold/Silver: gold at a four-month high (~US$3.47k/oz) and silver exceeding US$40/oz for the first time since 2011; bias supported by weaker dollar and cut bets.  

• Oil: Brent ~US$67 and WTI ~US$64, range movement; focus on JMMC/OPEC+ on Sept. 7 and Russia-Ukraine disruptions vs. supply increase.  

Cryptoassets 

• Bitcoin hovered around $109k at the weekly close (high beta to risk appetite, but sensitive to long returns). 

Flows and operations (M&A / IPO / VC / Debt) 

• M&A: selective activity with cross-border bias; Yageo’s bid for Shibaura in Japan (US$740 million) advanced under national security scrutiny; in Europe, movements continued in defense and specialty chemicals (DuPont Kevlar/Nomex).  

• IPOs: the autumn window gains traction; Klarna revival rumoured in the US (target valuation US$13–14bn) alongside tech-security pipeline (Netskope, Pattern).  

• Debt: in Europe, long pressure suggests fiscal/supply risk premiums; in UST, the positioning expects lower 2Y and higher 10–30Y due to doubts about Fed independence and tariffs.  

LATAM Focus — Colombia 

• BanRep maintained the rate at 9.25% in July (split decision) and reported a prudent bias; July’s inflation surprised to the upside to 4.9% YoY (0.28% MoM), raising the threshold for cuts in the near term.  

Tactical implications 

• Duration: maintain a neutral-slightly long bias at 2–5Y (carry/rolldown) and prudence at 10–30Y due to sensitivity to supply and risk premiums.

• VR USA: healthy consolidation after highs; preference for quality (solid balance sheet, pricing power) and energy/financials as hedges against steeper slopes.

• Commodities: gold as a tactical diversifier until the cut cycle is defined; oil in a headline-driven range to OPEC+.

• FX: tactical bearish bias in USD to payrolls; prefer EUR/AUD on rallies if employment data confirms cooling.  

Quick Source Notes for Weekly Variations: 

• S&P 500: week ended Aug 29 -0.1% (AP).  

• TLT: 22-Aug 87.05 -> 29-Aug 86.60 = -0.52%) (Nasdaq/StockAnalysis).  

• Brent: 22-Aug 67.73 -> 29-Aug 68.12 (= +0.6%) (Reuters/Morningstar).  

• Spot Gold (XAUUSD): 22-Aug 3,372.11 -> 29-Aug 3,448.00 (= +2.25%) (Investing.com).  

• Bitcoin (BTC-USD): Aug 22 116,928.9 -> Aug 29 108,355.6 (= -7.34%) (Investing.com).